Mortgage Home Loan Las Vegas NV & CA mortgages : NV & CA mortgage rates and home loans low closing costs

Las Vegas Real Estate & Mortgage

S&P market analysis opinion by Mark Brave

September 25th, 2007 6:46 PM

The S&P closed above 1500 on the announcement of the Fed rate but of 50 basis points, which has all but ruled out the head and shoulders top formation. At this point I am seeing more of a trading range between 1400 and 1550. We have a shorter term head and shoulders bottom suggesting prices to go from a low targe at 1553 to a high target of 1630. I think that there will be more selling as the level of the S&P's nears it's all time high, suggesting that we go with the lower target. The market was unable to close above this level back in July, so this is a critical resistance area. I would expect another short term rally to come soon, but I would be a seller as the market nears 1550. A significant close at a new all time high would put me on the bullish side and I would exit any short positions. There is not enough clear direction as to whether the market will make a new all time at this point, just that we should expect another short term rally at some point. I can't say whether that will occur from this point or if we are going to test the lows of 1476 on September 18, which is the day that the Fed announced it's rate cut.

Recommedations: Buy market derivitives (stocks or futures) around the 1486 level in anticipation that the day of the Fed rate will provide strong support. This should happen only if we do not have another rally to challenge all time highs. Stop loss should be any close below 1476.

Buy December 1400 puts at $14 if we experience a short term market rally. If the all time highs hold and we see a sell off to test the 1476 lows of September 18 then these options should see a near double in price. Purchase even numbers of contracts to sell half of the position if a test of the 1476 lows occurs and keep the remaining in case there is no support at this level and a test of the 1371 lows occur.

Aggressive recommendations: Buy market derivitives (stocks or futures) at 1505 GTC in anticipation that the breakout of the head and shoulders bottom will be a higher support level and those who were unable to get in on the news of the rate cut will look at this as an opportunity to get in when they didn't have the chance before. Stop loss should be any close below 1476.

Buy October 1600 puts and sell October 1550 puts for a net premium of $18 GTC. This premium spread should occur if we experience a market rally towards all time highs soon. Net risk is $32.

Mark Brave has: No open positions at this time.

This is market commentay and you should speak to your stock broker or financial planner before initiating any trades.

This commentary is independant from 1st Nevada Mortgage.

Posted by Barry Guca on September 25th, 2007 6:46 PMPost a Comment (0)

Mortgage rate forecast for the week

September 10th, 2007 9:07 AM

This week brings us the release of four pieces of economic data, with three of them likely to affect mortgage rates. The most important reports are all scheduled for release Friday, so look for the biggest changes to rates the latter part of the week.

The first report of the week is not considered to be of high importance. July's Goods and Services Trade Balance data will be posted Tuesday morning, giving us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is expected to show a deficit of approximately $59.0 billion, which would be an increase from June's $58.1 billion. However, I would consider this the least important of this week's releases, meaning it will likely have little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates.

Also worth noting is the 10-year Treasury Note auction Thursday. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. But, if the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, those losses are normally recovered after the results are announced. The results will be posted at 1:00 pm ET Thursday. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve Thursday afternoon.

Friday brings us the release of three pieces of relevant data. The first is the release of August's Retail Sales report. It will give us a measurement of consumer spending, which is very important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.5% increase in sales last month after July's 0.3% rise. If we see a higher level of spending than is forecasted, the bond markets will most likely fall and mortgage rates will rise. However, a weaker than expected reading could push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower Friday.

The second report of the day is August's Industrial Production report. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is considered to be moderately important but could cause movement in mortgage rates. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 0.3% increase in production. A higher level of output could lead to higher mortgage rates, while a weaker than expected figure should help push rates lower.

The last report of the week comes from the University of Michigan. Their consumer sentiment index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers' willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned of their personal financial situations, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and can impact the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 83.5.

Overall, this will likely be a pretty active week for the bond market and mortgage rates. Friday's Retail Sales report is the week's single most important. If we see weaker than expected readings in that data, we should see mortgage rates move lower for the week. However, a stronger than expected reading would likely drive bond prices lower and mortgage rates higher. I am holding the float recommendations for now, but could change if there is a lackluster interest in the 10-year auction or if the sales report shows stronger than expected results. E may also see the stock markets significantly influence bond trading, so look for sizable movement in the major indexes to also lead to a possible change in recommendations.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Posted by Barry Guca on September 10th, 2007 9:07 AMPost a Comment (0)

Look for a financial consultant not just a mortgage broker

September 9th, 2007 9:15 PM

The article below shows why it is important to work with someone who understands financial planning in respect to mortgages. Consumers who were just interested in the lowest rate and worked with inexperienced loan officers were placed in loans that were not right for their situation. Now they are either losing their homes or losing thousands of dollars paying for short sightedness. Always make sure your loan officer has a background in Financing. Your home is one of your largest investments, it deserves professional attention!

Daily Real Estate News | July 13, 2007

Company Must Pay $325 Million to Home Owners
Some home owners in 49 states will begin receiving forms in the mail to claim their share of the $325 million settlement of a lawsuit in which state and federal officials last year alleged widespread fraud by Ameriquest Mortgage and its related companies.

The settlement resolves allegations against Ameriquest, Town and County Credit Corp., and AMC Mortgage Services Inc., formerly known as Bedford Home Loans. In particular, the companies are accused of failing to adequately disclose home loan terms as well as inflating appraisals, refinancing borrowers into inappropriate loans, and charging excessive loan origination fees and prepayment penalties from 1999 through 2005.

Attorneys general from the District of Columbia and every state — except Virginia, where Ameriquest did not conduct business — are parties to the settlement.

Forms mailed to consumers Thursday indicate the minimum payment that customers can expect to receive. The average restitution payment is $812.15, but the amount could be larger depending upon how many customers choose to participate in the settlement.

Consumers who accept the restitution payment will relinquish their right to file lawsuits against Ameriquest unless their home goes into foreclosure. If a consumer's home goes into foreclosure, the consumer may still file a lawsuit against Ameriquest even if the restitution payment was accepted.

Source: REALTOR® Magazine Online and The Seattle Times (07/12/07)

Too many times we have a friend that just came into the mortgage business and you want to help them out by letting them refinance your home. They are probably a great person, friendly and professional. But when you are dealing with the one of your largest investments, you need someone with financial education and experience; someone who can work with financial planning, someone who understands diversification, time duration, tax consequences and net present value of annuities. If you not comfortable with that person assisting you with your retirement portfolio, you shouldn't have them managing one of your biggest investments in that portfolio, your home and mortgage.
If you were going into heart surgery, wouldn't you want someone trained and educated in that field of expertise?

Posted by Barry Guca on September 9th, 2007 9:15 PMPost a Comment (0)

Refinancing and home market values

September 9th, 2007 9:13 PM

Las Vegas home owners:

Is your Adjustable rate loan about to go up? Do you know if you still have the house value to refinance your home loan?
With the recent down turn in property values, you better make sure you have the market value needed to refinance or prepare to make the higher payments until homes values rise.
Sign up to receive free automated market updates of similar homes that are sold in your neighborhood.

Posted by Barry Guca on September 9th, 2007 9:13 PMPost a Comment (0)

10 Tips for Buying a Fixer-Upper in Las Vegas real estate market

September 7th, 2007 3:05 PM

Daily Real Estate News | September 4, 2007

10 Tips for Buying a Fixer-Upper
Buying a basically sound house and updating the cosmetics is a profitable thing to do in almost any market. But be careful what you buy or it may end up costing you later on.

Here are 10 things to consider when selecting a fixer-upper:

1. Purchase homes that are at least 30 percent below the market value of comparable nearby homes.

2. Choose a location with a low crime rate, good schools, and quiet streets. There isn’t anything you can do to cure a poor location.

3. Choose a house with three or four bedrooms. Smaller homes are unlikely to have enough buyer appeal.

4. Avoid homes that need major unprofitable repairs, include wiring, major plumbing, foundation repairs, major kitchen and bathroom renovation, room additions, and/or a new room. Spending money on these basics doesn’t add value. Buyers expect them.

5. Find a home that needs profitable cosmetic improvements like fresh paint inside and out, new light fixtures, new carpets and flooring, and fresh landscaping.

6. Look for affordable, low down-payment financing, such as taking over an existing mortgage, lease with option to buy, seller carry-back financing, or a combination.

7. Avoid obtaining new bank financing until the fix-up work is completed and the home’s market value has increased.

8. Don’t buy a fixer-upper that is more than 60 minutes from your current residence because it is important to visit everyday while the renovation work is being done.

9. Make sure that the seller or tenants will vacate immediately upon transfer of title.

10. Look for sellers who are motivated to sell and who want to make the sale happen.

Source: Inman News, Robert J. Bruss (09/01/07)

www.Own-LasVegas.com www.InvestVegasRealEstate.com

Posted by Barry Guca on September 7th, 2007 3:05 PMPost a Comment (0)