Las Vegas Real Estate & Mortgage

S&P 500 technical charting analysis by Mark Brave
August 22nd, 2007 8:24 PM
The S&P 500 has formed a textbook head and shoulders pattern. At this point it could go either way. A break of the neckline would suggest that more significant declines are coming. I still contend that a testing of the recent lows of 1371 needs to occur prior to having any more upside potential.
 
On another note, the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 have significantly weaker chart patters than the S&P 500, but all downside price objectives have been met. The Dow and Nasdaq bounced off of their 200 day on the most recent selloff where as the S&P closed significantly below it. All 3 indicies have seen a 10% decline. Murky waters for technical trading as these indicies need to move in the same general direction long term. Any trading above 1500 on the S&P would all but negate the head and shoulders top and would suggest that we are in some sort of trading range.
 
From August 16, 2007
A right shoulder has formed completing a head and shoulders top which started to form in the Spring of this year. The break of the right shoulder suggests that we should at a minimum test the lows of March 14 of 4.47. Using traditional technical analysis, we take the left shoulder low of 4.602 set May 11th and draw a neckline to the low of the right shoulder of 4.68 set August 6. We then take the high point of the head which is 5.316 set on June 13. The high point of the head down to the neckline is at approximately 4.65. We subtract 4.65 from 5.316 to calculate the distance from the top of the head down to the neckline. This value is approximately .666. The break of the neckline occured August 16th when it closed below 4.68. After subtracting .666 from 4.68 we get a rate of 4.014, suggesting we also may eventually be testing the low set August 31st, 2005 of 4.005.
 
Near term-expect a test of the 4.47 low set March 14th, 2007.
Long term-we may possibly be setting up to test the low of 4.005 set August 31st or we may be in a trading range between 4.40 and 5.2. Analysis of chart patters as it nears the low will give better indication.

Posted by Barry Guca on August 22nd, 2007 8:24 PMPost a Comment (0)

S&P technical charting analysis
August 28th, 2007 4:44 PM
Technical analysis shows the 3 major indicies were unable to push through resistance levels and we are at least going to test the lows from August 16th. A close of all three indicies below the trading lows of this day will complete the head and shoulders top and we will have lower downside targets to come. Intraday charts aren't suggesting if this selloff is going to result in a bounce when it nears these recent lows or not. Selling into the recent rally proved to be the correct short term strategy in anticipation of a testing of these lows.

Posted by Barry Guca on August 28th, 2007 4:44 PMPost a Comment (0)

I'm waiting to lock my loan rate because I heard the Fed is lowering rates..Don't wait..
August 17th, 2007 8:12 AM

If you are waiting to refinance because you expect rates to go down because you heard the Fed is going to lower rates next month, then consider this.  Mortgages rates correlate to the 10 year Treasury Note among other factors and if you heard the news of a Fed rate adjustment, don't you think all the traders and hedge fund managers around the world heard that news plus more.  These funder traders are reponsible for 100's of billions of dollars and are tied into these markets closely.

What this means to you?  Usually by the time of the announcement of a lowering of discount or fed rate, the treasuries will have already priced in that news and the treasury yield actually goes higher.  Here is a recent article:

BOND REPORT

Treasurys prices wilt as stocks make headway

By Leslie Wines, MarketWatch

Last Update: 9:58 AM ET Aug 17, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices turned lower Friday, sending yields higher, as the stock market staged a boisterous rally in response to news report that the Federal Reserve cut the window discount rate by 50 basis points to 5.75% from 6.25%.

According to Action Economics, the reduction was made to narrow the gap with the overnight Fed funds rate, which remains at 5.25%. The discount rate is offered to some banks.

The move was a relief because it was seen as injecting extra liquidity into an anxious stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) rose more than 300 points in the first 10 minutes of trade. See Market Snapshot

"This certainly was a surprise, although there were rumors in the market yesterday that the Fed might do something," said Don Kowalchik, a fixed-income strategist at A.G. Edwards.

"Equity markets were rough overnight and I don't think the Fed wanted to see another bad day here," he said.

A number of foreign markets were rattled overnight, including Tokyo where the Nikkei 225 took its biggest beating in almost six years, as investors snapped up yen as they fled riskier currencies funded by carry trade yen loans.

Chart of $TNX

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note last was down 5/32 at 100-18/32 with a yield ($TNX) CBOE 10-Year Treasury Yield Index of 4.679%.

The 2-year note was flat at 00-24/32 with a yield of 4.193%

There was heavy selling of the 30-year bond, in a bid to deepen the distance on the yields of longer and shorter maturities. The long bond was 24/32 lower at 100-28/32 with a 5.008% ($TYX) CBOE 30-Year Treasury Yield Index.

Yield Curve-steepening trades trades tend to signal that traders anticipate higher inflation, according to. Kowalchik. He noted that the Fed continues to signal that it does not wish to push the fed funds target below 5.25% because of the inflation threat.

In its statement announcing the news, the Fed said the action would "promote the restoration of orderly conditions in financial markets."

Severely tightened credit conditions and weak liquidity have caused a number of recent severe selloffs in the stock market -- to the benefit of low-risk Treasurys.

Improved liquidity and higher stock prices on Friday could lessen demand for Treasurys.

Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics, cautioned that the move was "large symbolic."

"Most banks don't really borrow at the discount window rate," he said. "Basically it is just a facility for distressed banks."

"But the move is providing relief because it shows that the Fed is more focused on the liquidity problem than had been thought before," Englund said. "I think it is a brilliant move. It will appease those who want the Fed to do something and those who want it to do nothing." End of Story

Leslie Wines is a reporter for MarketWatch in New York.


Posted by Barry Guca on August 17th, 2007 8:12 AMPost a Comment (0)

S&P 500 update by Mark Brave 8/15/07 1:26 pm
August 16th, 2007 2:07 PM
Got our close yesterday at 1426. New target is now established at 1351. I'm sure that we will have a test of the 1363 lows with a possible bounce around this level. There are 3 point and figure price indicators suggesting lows of 1360, 1350 and 1340.

Posted by Barry Guca on August 16th, 2007 2:07 PMPost a Comment (0)

8/3/07
August 3rd, 2007 7:13 PM
10 year T Note 8/3/07
Here's all you'll get from me from a fundamental point of view. The bond market is trading inverse to the stock market. With the current chart pattern a low of 4.636 should occur. A close below 4.64 with a close back above it would show a leg back up.
 
S&P
Well 1434 came pretty quick. I wish I could predict like that all the time. There is a new target low established at 1403.

Posted by Barry Guca on August 3rd, 2007 7:13 PMPost a Comment (1)

T-Note 10 year
August 2nd, 2007 6:16 PM
8/2/07 10 year Treasury Notes correlate with mortgage rates:
 
We have a close below 4.77 as it closed today at 4.753. When it closed below 4.862 on July 26 it never traded back above this number, let alone close above it. A close above 4.77 would show another move up with a stop loss being any close below 4.721 which is the trading low for August 1st. On the one month chart it shows a gap down opening for the 1st with a close above the previous days close, which is a good sign that a bottom has been put in.

Posted by Barry Guca on August 2nd, 2007 6:16 PMPost a Comment (0)

S&P from Mark Brave
August 2nd, 2007 3:30 PM
We easily broke thru the 1487 support level and the market has bounced off it's 200 day moving average. Open interest on August calls and puts show call open interest really starting to build around 1450. Put open interest starts building at 1525. I still think we are going to test 1434. On a 5 day chart we have a target of an intraday trade of 1420. I do think that the market makers are still going to expire the August options in the 1500-1525 range though. We might get a good bounce if the market does trade in the low 1400. We'll wait and see.

Posted by Barry Guca on August 2nd, 2007 3:30 PMPost a Comment (0)

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